2. William Leung, portfolio manager at Cohen & Steers, the US investment house with $4bn of assets exposed to Asia, agrees. He argues that speculative investment will be driven out of the market as prices fall. He adds that a trend in the industry towards alternative investments should mean that the price of real estate investment trusts rises even if the value of underlying assets grow more slowly. “We don’t think this correction will be so sharp,” he says.
3. Brands with the most incentive to coast in 2015:Jeep, which must be exhausted after lifting sales an astonishing 44% on the back of the new Cherokee, and Subaru, now the 10th most popular brand in America after improving its sales by 21% in its usual fashion: quietly.
4. I experienced this pessimism personally in Davos in January 2014. Several leading western intellectuals asked me whether war would break out between China and Japan. I was so confident that there would be no war in east Asia that I offered to take bets with ten-to-one odds against myself with eminent western journalists. Two took up my bets. And I will be collecting on these bets when I return to Davos in January.